Vanuatu: Legal challenges and planned protest unlikely to threaten government stability

On 11 February, Leader of the Opposition, Ishmael Kalsakau, lodged perjury complaints against Speaker of Parliament Stephen Felix and Minister of Justice, Job Sam Andy. On 12 February, Jay Ngwele, Deputy Leader of the Opposition, handed the Citizenship Programme Commission of Inquiry (COI) report to the police to be used as evidence in his criminal complaint against the government. Within the following seven days, the “Vote No to Referendum” group lodged an application to demonstrate against the government on 17 March.

Assessment: Short term Government stability is unlikely to be affected. While the incidents appear clustered and possibly coordinated, the outcomes of the complaints are likely to arrive at different times rather than add cumulative pressure. The COI complaint was initially lodged with the police nearly 12 months ago. The planned protest is unlikely to draw significant numbers, a recent local government election in Torba Province showed strong support for the Government.

Sources: Hilaire Bule, “MP Ngwele hands Citizenship COI report to police,” DailyPost, February 13, 2026; Hilaire Bule, “Opposition Leader to lodge perjury complaints against Speaker and Justice Minister,” DailyPost, February 13, 2026.