New Caledonia: FLNKS continue focus on votes rather than instability ahead of tight Paris debate over New Caledonia’s political future

Over 13 and 14 February, the pro-independence grouping, FLNKS, staged protests in Paris, Nouméa, and other parts of New Caledonia. One outer island protest numbered 20, while the largest demonstration reported was approximately 400 outside the High Commission of the French Republic in Nouméa. FLNKS claimed the aim was to influence political parties in Paris ahead of legislative votes on constitutional amendments to formalise the Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords on New Caledonia’s political future. The votes begin on 25 February and end in late March, requiring passing by the French Senate, National Assembly, and finally both houses sitting together. On 23 February, Paul Néaoutyine, a senior figure within another pro-independence group, PALIKA, publicly opposed the Accords, despite his party having signed them. 

Assessment: While further small protests are likely until the final vote, specifically on Saturdays, FLNKS focus remains on influencing the vote in Paris and upcoming municipal elections, rather than causing instability. FLNKS protests over 13-14 February were small and peaceful compared to the May 2024 civil unrest and highly likely indicate a loss of youth support (see also SPI #40, dated 27 January to 10 February). In Paris, negotiation between parties over the amendments are likely to continue to the last minute - the Socialist party hold a swing vote minority in the National Congress and have indicated their intention to vote against the amendments’ current form. Regarding Néaoutyine’s public opposition, while some support for his statements exist with northern members, PALIKA is unlikely to withdraw support due to the main party leadership continuing to speak and vote in favour of the Accords.

Sources: Marguerite Poigoune, “Dissensions au sein du Palika: des militants contestent certaines prises de position,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 4 December 2025; Nadine Goapana and Coralie Cochin, “Les propos de Paul Néaoutyine sur l’accord ont été instrumentalisés, assure le Palika,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 1 February 2026; “Le FLNKS bat le rappel avant l’examen de la loi constitutionnelle au Sénat,” 14 February 2026; Linda Saci, “Bougival-Élysée-Oudinot : « Je réitère publiquement et clairement mon opposition », clame Paul Néaoutyine,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 23 February 2026; Loreleï Aubry, Gaël Detcheverry, and Sarra Mejeri, “Avenir institutionnel après la tribune du PS : certains élus calédoniens restent optimistes, d’autres font preuve de résilience,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, 18 February 2026.