Vanuatu-Papua New Guinea: Coalition dynamics and Chinese influence likely to continue to delay signing of Australian agreements

On 9 September, the signing of the Nakamal Agreement in Port Vila between the Australian and Vanuatu Prime Ministers did not take place due to concerns raised by a member of the latter’s coalition. Vanuatu Prime Minister, Jotham Napat, stated that “wordings” in the agreement limit Vanuatu’s choice of involvement with other countries, especially around critical infrastructure development. Media reporting from a diplomatic source alluded to Chinese pressure on some Vanuatu Ministers. The agreement, if signed, would commit Australia to disburse $AUD500 million (approximately $US326.5 million) to strengthen economic and security ties with Vanuatu. Separately, on 17 September in Port Moresby, a communique on the defence treaty between Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) was signed in place of the actual treaty document. Several former PNG Defence Force Commanders and PNG’s opposition leader, Douglas Tomuriesa, raised concerns about the country’s sovereignty and independence. Tomuriesa suggested a parliamentary debate and constitutional review before the treaty is signed. On 18 September, the Chinese Embassy in Port Moresby also publicly cautioned PNG about signing agreements that exclude others. 

Assessment: China will almost certainly continue to influence members of parliament in Vanuatu and PNG to delay the signing of the deals. The two deals will place some limits on both countries’ ability to enter separate security arrangements with China; therefore, a victory for China is a prolonged delay or maintenance of the status quo. While both Vanuatu and PNG PMs devote significant time to managing their coalition governments, PM Napat’s position is particularly fragile. These coalition dynamics amplify China’s ability to influence a small number of politicians who have benefited previously from infrastructure, business investments, or other forms of aid in their local area - even without direct influence, these local figures may feel obligated to speak out in China’s favour. Highlighting the benefits of the Australian agreements to the wider population is an avenue that is likely to rebalance this pressure and allow the PMs to more comfortably risk their coalition. Statements issued by the respective PMs and senior leaders within their coalitions will indicate how likely the agreements are to pass.

Sources: Stephen Dziedzic and Lillyrose Welwel, “Australia-Vanuatu Agreement Hangs in the Balance, as Albanese Flies to Port Vila Ahead of Pacific Islands Forum,” RNZ News, September 9, 2025; Ezra Toara, “It’s the wordings in the Nakamal Agreement,” PM Napat on why deal is still unsettled,” Daily Post, September 10, 2025; Kirsty Needham, “Australia, Vanuatu security agreement to be delayed,” Reuters, September 9, 2025; Stephen Dziedzic, “Albanese has found out nailing down Pacific agreements is harder than expected,” ABC, September 17, 2025; “Press conference - Port Vila, Vanuatu,” PM&C, September 9, 2025; “Tomuriesa queries Aust defence treaty,” Post Courier, September 19, 2025; “China Responds to Papua New Guinea-Australia Defense Treaty.” Post Courier, September 19, 2025; Marjorie Finkeo, Kate Lamb, and Virginia Harrison, “China Issues Warning to Papua New Guinea over Defence Deal with Australia,” The Guardian, September 19, 2025; “‘Strategic blunder’: Singirok says defence treaty a minefield for PNG,” The National, September 18, 2025.