New Caledonia: Increased security presence almost certain to mitigate uncertainty around new government’s approach to implement the Bougival Agreement

France’s new Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has yet to appoint cabinet ministers or make statements regarding New Caledonia. Initial reactions to Lecornu’s appointment from the FLNKS pro-Independence group have been negative, citing his previous role as Minister for Overseas to run the final independence referendum in 2021 during a COVID-19 outbreak, a measure boycotted by pro-independence groups. On 15 September, the territory’s congress voted to postpone provincial elections for a third time, to now occur no later than 28 June 2026. Furthermore, on 19 September, France’s Constitutional Council - a court specialising in constitutional matters - ruled that New Caledonia’s voter list will remain frozen. Meanwhile, around 22 September, the territory’s High Commissioner, Jacques Billant, announced increased security measures, including 24 hour patrols by the 2600 gendarmes currently in New Caledonia. 130 additional security force members have arrived as reinforcements and an alcohol ban is in place until 28 September (except for licensed bars and restaurants). The increased activity is in place to cover the 24 September observation of Citizenship Day, but Billant also stated the measures will remain “beyond September and as long as needed” noting the current “climate of tension.”

Assessment: PM Lecornu is facing immediate domestic challenges including the formation of a new cabinet, passing a budget, and labour protests across France (similar union strikes in New Caledonia are almost certainly related to the movements in France, rather than a direct protest against Bougival). This is almost certainly lowering New Caledonia as a priority issue. Based on PM Lecornu’s previous actions in New Caledonia and continued support for the Bougival Agreement amongst the majority of signatories in the New Caledonia Congress, it is highly likely that he will continue with the agreement. FLNKS is increasingly likely to seek opportunities to protest Bougival’s implementation if they do not have regular dialogue with French officials - public announcements by FLNKS leadership are likely to indicate when such protests will occur. Spontaneous unrest, including roadblocks and stone throwing are also likely in pro-independence areas around Citizenship Day, but will be quickly contained by the increased security force presence in Nouméa and surrounding towns.

Sources: Franc̜oise Tromeur and Théo Rouby, “Une première étape, des marges de manœuvre, des éléments positifs: Les élus du Congrès donnent un avis favorable au report des provinciales,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, September 15, 2025; “Reposons les bases pour avancer: À la Fête de l’Humanité, Christian Tein s’exprime sur le nouveau Premier ministre et Bougival,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, September 12, 2025; Mariama Darame, “Macron and PM Lecornu Keep Low Profiles amid Social Unrest,” Le Monde, September 19, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “French Constitutional Council Upholds Frozen Electoral List in New Caledonia,” RNZ Pacific, September 20, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New French PM Sébastien Lecornu Triggers Swift Reactions in New Caledonia,” RNZ Pacific, September 11, 2025; Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia under Tight Security Ahead of Citizenship Day,” RNZ Pacific, September 22, 2025.