Vanuatu: Political violence unlikely amid political instability

On 18 November, the President of Vanuatu, Nikenike Vurobaravu, dissolved parliament after two separate motions of no confidence (MONC) were moved for the removal of Prime Minister Charlot Salwai and himself. The dissolution happened one day before the parliament was scheduled to hold the MONC vote against the Prime Minister. Opposition groups in parliament have challenged the president’s decision, taking the case to the Supreme Court. However, members of parliament and citizens are now preparing for a snap election in mid-January 2025. The last snap election was in 2022, and the new election will see the fifth prime minister installed in four years.

Assessment: The expected date for the election is 14 January 2025. Article 28 (4) of the Constitution of Vanuatu specifies that general elections must be held between 30 and 60 days following any dissolution. A large number of voters are likely to turn out and cast votes to replace members of parliament following repeated issues of political corruption and mismanagement. While Vanuatu has experienced protracted political instability since 2020, political violence is assessed as unlikely before, during, or after the snap election. Previous elections have been carried out peacefully with no clashes between supporters or cases of voter intimidation.

Sources: “Vanuatu MPs scramble for funds ahead of snap election,” Radio New Zealand, November 22, 2024; “Vanuatu's political uncertainty continues as country prepares for snap election on 14 January,” Radio New Zealand, December 3, 2024; “List of prime ministers,” Wikipedia, March 11, 2025; “Snap election looms in Vanuatu,” Radio New Zealand, November 19, 2025.