New Caledonia: Curfew lifted and pro-independence party outlines stance for independence

At a recent party congress, the Union Calédonienne (UC) announced its vision for New Caledonia’s political future and Emmanuel Tjibaou as its new President. Tjibaou set the goal of full sovereignty from France by 2030, beginning with a formal agreement on transition to be signed by 24 September 2025. Tjibaou explained that following independence, New Caledonia would negotiate further agreements on defence, foreign affairs, and the economy with France. Separately, on 2 December, New Caledonia’s High Commissioner, Louis Le Franc, announced the removal of the curfew and a relaxation on the transport and purchasing of firearms and ammunition. Both had been in place since the May civil unrest. A ban on public gatherings in Nouméa and restrictions on the quantity of alcohol for purchase will remain until 20 December.

Assessment: The French Government intends to begin negotiations on New Caledonia’s autonomy imminently, to conclude an agreement by March 2025. UC represents the most extreme edge of the pro-independence movement, with other pro-independence parties blaming them for the May civil unrest (see PACSUM 8 covering 7-20 November 2024). The other pro-independence parties are yet to state their negotiating positions, but are likely to seek something less than full independence, likely reversing the order proposed by UC. More autonomy with shared sovereignty has also been proposed by the French Government and parliamentary representatives (see PACSUM 8 covering 7-20 November 2024). 2025 is likely to be politically charged as negotiations are carried out, followed by campaigning for the provincial elections prior to November 2025 (meant to take place in 2024 but delayed due to the security situation). While negotiations are ongoing and France retains an increased security presence, a return to political violence is unlikely. Furthermore, UC is likely to publicly express dissatisfaction with negotiations before initiating any future politically motivated violence.

Sources: Patrick Decloitre, "Pro-independence Union Calédonienne Unveils Plans for New Caledonia’s Political Future," RNZ, November 29, 2024; Patrick Decloitre, "French Pacific News in Brief," RNZ, November 29, 2024; Patrick Decloitre, "Overnight Curfew Lifted in New Caledonia," RNZ, December 3, 2024.