Vanuatu: Post and pre-electoral violence unlikely

On 23 December, the Vanuatu Electoral Office announced that the snap election would be rescheduled from 14 to 16 January 2025. The decision follows the 7.3 magnitude earthquake, which significantly damaged Vanuatu’s capital, Port Vila, earlier on 17 December. The snap election will elect Members of Parliament following President Nikenike Vurobaravu’s dissolution of Parliament in November ahead of a motion of no confidence (MONC). Candidate nominations will close on 25 December, and qualified candidates will be announced on 2 January 2025.

Assessment: The extension gives Vanuatu almost a month to prepare for the snap election. Although January falls within the summer period and is prone to extreme rainfall, the earthquake recovery appears sufficiently on track to allow the elections to continue. Pre and post-electoral violence is unlikely to occur, especially as recovery continues after the earthquake.

Sources: “Vanuatu snap election pushed back after earthquake,” RNZ Pacific, December 22, 2024; Anita Roberts, “Over 200 candidate applications for Snap Election,” Daily Post Vanuatu, December 28, 2024