New Caledonia: Government collapse delays recovery and autonomy negotiations but new curfew not related to political situation
On 24 December, the resignation of New Caledonia’s Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development triggered the Government’s collapse. New Caledonia’s Government is drawn from a proportion of all parties elected to Congress rather than a single party or coalition. Due to a unique legal clause, the resignation of a Minister along with the remainder of their party, who would replace the Minister, is considered a resignation of the Government as a whole. The tactic has been used 11 times since 1999, and the Congress will elect a new Government on 7 January. Subsequently, €77 million of a €231 million aid package from the French Government will be delayed until a new Government is formed and Congress can pass goods and services tax reform. Separately, a curfew and ban on public gatherings have been reinstated for Nouméa, Dumbéa, Mont-Dore, and Païta from 0100-0600 over 31 December to 2 January.
Assessment: The curfew is almost certainly a temporary measure to prevent New Year’s Eve celebrations devolving into public disorder and is not related to the Government’s collapse. President Louis Mapou was elected in 2021 as New Caledonia’s first pro-independence President. Mapou’s removal will not affect autonomy negotiations with France - all four pro-independence parties were signatories to the 1998 Nouméa Accord, and there are indications from within New Caledonia and Paris that the same will occur in 2025. The Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, Jérémie Katidjo-Monnier, cited tensions between the Government and Congress over how to fund New Caledonia’s recovery. President Mapou had been seeking a €1 billion loan from France, while Congress sought a non-repayable grant to support a five-year reconstruction plan. Katidjo-Monnier claimed Congress also had the support of provincial politicians and New Caledonia’s representatives in the French Parliament. A grant benefits New Caledonia’s financial situation long-term and is unlikely to provide any significant leverage to pro-France groups during autonomy negotiations.
Sources: Patrick Decloitre, “New Caledonia Political Crisis Costs One Third of Multi-Million French Package,” RNZ, December 31, 2024; Patrick Decloitre, “French Pacific News in Brief,” RNZ, December 28, 2024; Patrick Decloitre, “Block Resignation Topples New Caledonia's Government,” RNZ, December 25, 2024.
