Vanuatu: Snap election may cause protests over unresolved issues in the medium-term

On 18 November, President Vurobaravu dissolved parliament based on the recommendation of the Vanuatu government cabinet. Several MPs had defected in recent days and the opposition had raised a motion of no confidence.  

Assessment: The dissolution will trigger a snap election to take place within 30-60 days (18 December 2024-18 January 2025). Vanautu has had four changes of political leadership in four years, with a similar dissolution of parliament occurring two years ago. While the elections have been free of unrest, the failure of the government to address ongoing issues may cause groups, such as the Teachers Union who were recently on strike, to protest delays or perceptions of non-action. The caretaker government intends to implement constitutional amendments designed to prevent parliamentary instability as passed in a referendum in June 2024 – these will not save the current government but are likely to provide more longevity to the next.

Sources: Koroi Hawkins, “Snap election looms in Vanuatu,” RNZ, November 19, 2024.