New Caledonia: Political negotiations remain within French control after PIF visit

Over 27-30 October, a PIF Delegation comprised of the Tonga, Fiji, and Cook Islands Prime Ministers and the Solomon Islands Foreign Minister met with various groups in New Caledonia. PM Rabuka lowered pro-independence group expectations of the role the PIF could play prior to the visit. Following the visit, the group identified that New Caledonia could participate more in regional institutions as it sought greater autonomy but also noted there were a wide variety of positions on what autonomy would look like between the parties.

Meanwhile, on 4 November the curfew was eased to midnight to 5am. Bans on firearms, flammable products and public gatherings remain in place around Nouméa. Some movement restrictions through Saint Louis have been eased, all vehicle movement had been previously banned, blocking the main access route from central Nouméa to the south of the island.

Assessment: PM Rabuka’scomments on the limited role of the delegationreaffirmed the French Government’s position that the PIF delegation was observational and that the pace and scope of negotiations are being controlled from Paris. A further visit by the Heads of the French Senate and National Assembly is scheduled from 9 to 14 November and President Macron still intends to host political leaders in Paris before the end of 2024. These meetings will shape the environment for formal talks about the successor to the Nouméa Accords to occur in 2025.

Sources:  Lydia Lewis, “Rabuka's message to Kanaky movement: 'Don't slap the hand that feeds you',” RNZ, October 25, 2024; Nick Sas, Movono, Stephen Dziedzic, “Australian-backed Pacific police force an option to quell 'tension' in New Caledonia, Pacific leaders say,” RNZ, November 1, 2024; Caleb Fotheringham, “Cook Islands Prime Minister calls for easing of tensions in New Caledonia,” RNZ, November 1, 2024; Patrick Decloitre, “French Pacific news in brief,” RNZ, November 4, 2024.