West Papua: Further clashes, hostage taking, and military presence likely

On 14 January, Indonesia’s Vice President cancelled a planned visit to Yahukimo Regency in Highland Papua after the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) fired on an aircraft in Dekai the previous day. TPNPB leader Goliath Tabuni warned that his forces would kill the VP if he entered the area. The VP had been touring other West Papuan towns to assess development projects. Separately, on 15 January, the Indonesian military rescued 18 workers who had been surrounded for three days by armed Free Papua Movement (OPM) members in the Tembagapura district of Central Papua Province, while conducting maintenance on electric towers. It is unclear if the workers were rescued through negotiation or by force, but the military stated no shots were fired.

Assessment: The recent incidents indicate a worsening security situation and a high likelihood of further armed confrontations, including an increased risk of hostage-taking toward foreigners or foreign-linked commercial operators. Indonesian military presence is likely to increase, which will likely limit insurgent freedom of movement but is also likely to lead to more clashes. No Pacific leaders have spoken about the two recent events.

Sources: Johnny Blades, “Indonesian VP cancels visit in West Papua after attack,” RNZ, January 15, 2026; “Indonesian military rescue 18 Freeport workers from rebel siege in Papua,” The Jakarta Post, January 15, 2026.