West Papua: Threat of violence highly likely to have increased after little PIF support

Around 13 September, leaders at the 54th Pacific Island Forum (PIF) released a communique reaffirming Indonesia’s sovereignty over West Papua. The communique also included a task for a PIF envoy to visit West Papua in 2026 in consultation with the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). Forum Chairman, Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele reaffirmed that West Papua did not meet the requirement as an observer in MSG.

Assessment: West Papuans have no remaining avenues of international support aside from the visit in 2026. Sustaining international visibility is one of the movement’s few effective points of leverage against the Indonesian Government. However, this visit has been promised by the MSG since 2023 and is yet to occur, indicating Fiji and PNG leaders lack of desire to engage the issue as well as Indonesia’s increased regional  influence efforts over the last 12 months. The intent of West Papuan leaders to carry out protests and kidnapping  to raise awareness is highly likely to have increased. 

Sources: Ronald Toito’ona, “Forum Leaders Reaffirm Indonesia’s Sovereignty but Keep West Papua on Regional Agenda,” In Depth Solomons, September 13, 2025; Pita Ligaiula, “Forum Leaders back Indonesia’s sovereignty, Push for 2026 West Papua visit,” Pacific Islands News Association, September 15, 2025.