New Caledonia: Local election results indicate underwhelming support for pro-independence FLNKS negotiating position

On 15 and 22 March, elections for 33 local councils were held in New Caledonia. The pro-independence group, FLNKS, reduced its control of municipalities from 13 to ten. The pro-Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords independence group, UNI, maintained its overall total of five municipalities. Across the pro-independence and pro-France spectrum, traditional “stronghold” municipalities were also lost to non-party aligned groups. One former politician commented that these changes reflect a poor local economic situation and loss of jobs, particularly for the nickel mining areas of Thio and Koné. Voter turnout was 59%, marginally higher than in 2020. This was the first nationwide election in New Caledonia since the 2024 French legislative elections held immediately after the May 2024 riots.

Assessment: While New Caledonia’s local council elections historically reflect local issues, FLNKS campaigned on its opposition to the Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords and is unlikely to see the results as widespread endorsement for its position. Despite likely public statements that look for silver linings, FLNKS had hoped a majority would support its campaign within the French parliament to reject the March and April vote on constitutional amendments to implement the Accords. The French Government is likely to interpret the results as inline with its approach to continue implementing the Accords with or without FLNKS.

Sources: Stéphanie Chenais, “Carte résultats 2nd tour municipales 2026 par commune en Nouvelle-Calédonie : découvrez les scores des candidats,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, March 23, 2026; “Municipales 2026 en Nouvelle-Calédonie : les loyalistes verrouillent le Grand Nouméa, les indépendantistes divisés,” March 23, 2026;  Valentin Deleforterie and Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Ces élections scellent une déflagration politique, estime Gaby Briault, observateur de la vie politique,” March 23, 2026.