Solomon Islands: Prime Minister highly likely to continue parliament delay to secure majority ahead of motion of no confidence

Around 16 March, all People First Party (PFP) members, including 12 ministers, withdrew from the coalition government, citing mistrust and leadership concerns. Subsequently, PFP formed a 28 member bloc (in a 50-member Parliament) with opposition and independent MPs and submitted a motion of no confidence (MONC). The MONC’s mandatory seven-day notice period is expected to end by 23 March but Prime Minister Manele has told journalists that parliament is unlikely to be called until May. Although parliamentary sessions are typically initiated by the Prime Minister, the Governor-General can call a special parliamentary meeting against the Prime Minister’s advice. PM Manele told media that his government remains in office until the MONC is formally voted on in parliament and subsequently appointed new ministers to fill the vacant roles. Former Foreign Minister Peter Shanel Agovaka, who recently resigned from Cabinet, said the PFP has approached him to lead the next government.

Assessment:  Since taking office in 2024, PM Manele has successfully leveraged shifting political alliances to comfortably survive 3 previous MONC attempts. PM Manele’s delay in calling parliament is almost certainly an indication he does not have the numbers and requires time to win over MPs. With 28 MPs, the opposition is highly likely to win a MONC if cast now – a successful legal petition or support of the Governor-General will be required to call parliament. However, PM Manele is more likely to win the longer he is able to prolong the parliamentary sitting – three new ministerial appointments or individual MP defections will indicate PM Manele’s success.

Sources: Johnny Blades, “PNG and Bougainville govts urged to plan for what follows referendum decision,” RNZ, March 24, 2026; Johnny Blades, “Bougainville independence process enters 'final leg' amid lingering uncertainty,” RNZ, December 5, 2025; “Prime Minister queried over status of Bougainville,” The National, March 20, 2026; “Toroama set 1 Sept 2027 as Independence Day,” The National, February 13, 2026.