New Caledonia: No decisive victory for pro-France or independence parties following provincial elections
On 28 June, provincial elections were held in New Caledonia. The election outcome also determines the 54 seats in the territory's overall legislative body, the Congress of New Caledonia. Pro-France groups increased their seats from 19 to 24 and the pro-independence FLNKS also increased seats from 13 to 16. Pro-independence UNI, who split from FLNKS after the May 2024 riots, decreased their hold from 12 to 7. Oceanian Awakening, who have held the balance of power in several key votes, increased their seats from 3 to 4, with other minor parties making up the remainder. 64% of eligible voters participated in the election, down from 66% in the last election but consistent with the March 2026 municipal elections. According to media reporting, the voting was conducted without any security incidents.
Assessment: Domestic parties and the French Government were looking to the provincial elections as an indicator of public sentiment toward the stalled negotiations over New Caledonia's political future. However, no party has won a decisive majority, with both extremes of the pro-independence and pro-France debate increasing their share and highly likely to stick to their current position. The French Government will have significant work ahead to reconcile the two sides and is unlikely to be able to keep the Bougival and Élysée-Oudinot Accords in their current form, with the smaller groups also highly likely to play a significant role in breaking any deadlock.
Sources: Françoise Tromeur, “Élections provinciales 2026 en Nouvelle-Calédonie : comment les résultats dans le Sud, le Nord et les îles modifient les équilibres du Congrès,” Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère, 28 June 2026; Emma Jaconelli, “Élections provinciales en Nouvelle-Calédonie : une "stabilisation des rapports de force" analysent les responsables politiques nationaux,” Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère, 28 June 2026; Françoise Tromeur, “Vainqueurs, rapport de force, dispersion, abstention… Ce qu’on peut retenir, au lendemain des élections provinciales 2026 en Nouvelle-Calédonie,” Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère, 28 June 2026.
