New Caledonia: New Accord likely only small progress toward long-term settlement
On 20 January, the Elyseé-Oudinot Accord was signed by the French Government and New Caledonian political leaders. The agreement provides supplementary details to the Bougival Accord signed in July 2025, including recognition of Kanak indigenous identity, increased taxation powers for provincial governments, and financial support for reconstruction. All New Caledonian congressional parties were present and signed, except for the pro-Independence grouping, FLNKS, who initially boycotted the weekend of talks then had a request denied to join remotely. The Accord must now pass the French Parliament - to occur in three stages between February and April - and a referendum in New Caledonia - envisaged for June or July.
Assessment: After New Caledonia’s Congress failed to support the proposed Bougival Accord implementation plan in December, this latest agreement is an attempt to address the issues and rebrand the settlement process. The political leaders who did sign the agreement represent over 70% of congressional seats, including pro-independence groups that have recently split from FLNKS. President Macron and the Minister for Overseas will almost certainly use this number to continue with the Accord’s implementation. FLNKS has said it will use “every political tool available” to maintain public opposition, however, it has not raised large numbers in protest since the May 2024 unrest and is likely to continue with media statements and possibly small protests. The March 2026 municipal elections will give some indication of present public support. Despite localised incidents, the increased security force presence will continue to maintain stability while the political process continues over the next 12 months.
Sources: Patrick Decloitre, "FLNKS Sends in Late Request to Join Paris Talks on New Caledonia Remotely," RNZ, January 14, 2026; Franc̜oise Tromeur, “Décryptage: que contient l'accord complémentaire Élysée-Oudinot sur l'avenir de la Nouvelle-Calédonie?,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, January 20, 2026; Emma Jaconelli “L'accord Élysée-Oudinot va permettre à la Nouvelle-Calédonie "d'envisager l'avenir dans de bonnes conditions" selon ses signataires,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, January 20, 2026; Patrick Decloitre, "Another New Caledonia Agreement Signed in Paris," RNZ, January 16, 2026; Marion Thellier and Stéphanie Chenais, “Emmanuel Tjibaou reste à la tête de l'Union calédonienne,” La 1ère Nouvelle-Calédonie, January 26, 2026.
